Risk
Renewable leases are 'guaranteed' — but long on policy
A 25 to 40 year lease looks secure on paper: fixed rent, indexed annually, backed by a signed agreement. But over that length of time, a great deal outside the lease itself can change.
What actually changes over decades
Tax policy on land, wealth and business shifts over political cycles. Reliance on a single asset, technology, or developer concentrates risk that a shorter-term arrangement wouldn't carry. And regulatory or administrative changes — like a sudden revaluation of business rates — can alter what looked like a fixed, contractually secure income stream almost overnight.
A case in point
In late 2025, a number of landowners with hydro projects were hit with sudden, backdated business rates liabilities following a change in valuation methodology. In extreme cases, rates increased by up to 500% versus previous levels, materially reducing income that had previously been viewed as stable. It's a useful illustration of how quickly administrative changes can undermine a long-term, land-based income stream that looked secure.
What capitalising changes
Capitalising a portion of a lease doesn't remove every risk — but it does convert some of that long-dated, policy-exposed income into capital today, under terms you can see and agree now, rather than terms that may shift over the next two or three decades.